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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a ability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.