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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It commonly acts as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the largest resurgence is handed the award. However, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or simply the greatest upset.

Yet this year's field is fundamentally different. The group of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions falling away and recent also-rans ascending in unison. In an normal year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's competing with several other elite coaches.

This is how the projected ballot could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to display his rare talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained performance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than improvising. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure magic from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But this isn't a typical campaign!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. But he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty after his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and experience, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still