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Beijing has deployed its coast guard into the maritime area of the Diaoyu islands and military drones near outlying Japan's territory as China escalates strains following the Japan's leader's remarks regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its vessels carried out a “rights enforcement patrol” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Japan but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the latest activity come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a retraction from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

China claims the island as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it terms “unification”. It has not ruled out the military option. The island's administration and people categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An military assault by China would risk escalating into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the US and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.

Defense Operations

On the island, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was probably the coast guard, operating around the territory over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs flying between Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its north-east coast, seeming to travel particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said China had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. The island reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since Takaichi made her comments, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city triggering an official complaint from Japan by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, China cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other powers, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.