🔗 Share this article

A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."

New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Debates range over identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has has something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for Wider Dialogue

Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."